识别面部视频的连续情绪和动作单元（AU）强度需要对表达动态的空间和时间理解。现有作品主要依赖2D面的外观来提取这种动态。这项工作着重于基于参数3D面向形状模型的有希望的替代方案，该模型解散了不同的变异因素，包括表达诱导的形状变化。我们旨在了解与最先进的2D外观模型相比，在估计价值和AU强度方面表现性3D面部形状如何。我们基准了四个最近的3D面对准模型：Expnet，3DDFA-V2，DECA和EMOCA。在价值估计中，3D面模型的表达特征始终超过以前的作品，并在SEWA和AVEC 2019 CES CORPORA上的平均一致性相关性分别为.739和.574。我们还研究了BP4D和DISFA数据集的AU强度估计的3D面形状如何执行，并报告说3D脸部功能在AUS 4、6、10、12和25中与2D外观特征相当，但没有整个集合。 aus。为了理解这种差异，我们在价值和AUS之间进行了对应分析，该分析指出，准确的价值预测可能仅需要少数AU的知识。

自动识别面部和声音的明显情绪很难，部分原因是各种不确定性来源，包括输入数据和机器学习框架中使用的标签。本文介绍了一种不确定性感知的视听融合方法，该方法量化了对情绪预测的模态不确定性。为此，我们提出了一个新颖的融合框架，在该框架中，我们首先通过视听时间上下文向量学习潜在分布，然后限制单峰潜在分布的方差向量，以便它们表示每种模式的信息量，以提供W.R.T.情绪识别。特别是，我们对视听潜在分布的方差向量施加了校准和序数排名约束。当经过良好校准时，将模态不确定性得分表明它们的相应预测可能与地面真实标签有多大不同。排名良好的不确定性得分允许在模式中对不同框架进行顺序排名。为了共同施加这两种约束，我们提出了软马克斯分布匹配损失。在分类和回归设置中，我们将不确定性感知的融合模型与标准模型 - 静态融合基线进行了比较。我们对两个情绪识别语料库（AVEC 2019 CES和IEMOCAP）的评估表明，视听情绪识别可以从良好的和良好的潜在不确定性度量中受益匪浅。

Cybercriminals are moving towards zero-day attacks affecting resource-constrained devices such as single-board computers (SBC). Assuming that perfect security is unrealistic, Moving Target Defense (MTD) is a promising approach to mitigate attacks by dynamically altering target attack surfaces. Still, selecting suitable MTD techniques for zero-day attacks is an open challenge. Reinforcement Learning (RL) could be an effective approach to optimize the MTD selection through trial and error, but the literature fails when i) evaluating the performance of RL and MTD solutions in real-world scenarios, ii) studying whether behavioral fingerprinting is suitable for representing SBC's states, and iii) calculating the consumption of resources in SBC. To improve these limitations, the work at hand proposes an online RL-based framework to learn the correct MTD mechanisms mitigating heterogeneous zero-day attacks in SBC. The framework considers behavioral fingerprinting to represent SBCs' states and RL to learn MTD techniques that mitigate each malicious state. It has been deployed on a real IoT crowdsensing scenario with a Raspberry Pi acting as a spectrum sensor. More in detail, the Raspberry Pi has been infected with different samples of command and control malware, rootkits, and ransomware to later select between four existing MTD techniques. A set of experiments demonstrated the suitability of the framework to learn proper MTD techniques mitigating all attacks (except a harmfulness rootkit) while consuming <1 MB of storage and utilizing <55% CPU and <80% RAM.

We introduce a machine-learning (ML)-based weather simulator--called "GraphCast"--which outperforms the most accurate deterministic operational medium-range weather forecasting system in the world, as well as all previous ML baselines. GraphCast is an autoregressive model, based on graph neural networks and a novel high-resolution multi-scale mesh representation, which we trained on historical weather data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s ERA5 reanalysis archive. It can make 10-day forecasts, at 6-hour time intervals, of five surface variables and six atmospheric variables, each at 37 vertical pressure levels, on a 0.25-degree latitude-longitude grid, which corresponds to roughly 25 x 25 kilometer resolution at the equator. Our results show GraphCast is more accurate than ECMWF's deterministic operational forecasting system, HRES, on 90.0% of the 2760 variable and lead time combinations we evaluated. GraphCast also outperforms the most accurate previous ML-based weather forecasting model on 99.2% of the 252 targets it reported. GraphCast can generate a 10-day forecast (35 gigabytes of data) in under 60 seconds on Cloud TPU v4 hardware. Unlike traditional forecasting methods, ML-based forecasting scales well with data: by training on bigger, higher quality, and more recent data, the skill of the forecasts can improve. Together these results represent a key step forward in complementing and improving weather modeling with ML, open new opportunities for fast, accurate forecasting, and help realize the promise of ML-based simulation in the physical sciences.

Diffusion models have shown a great ability at bridging the performance gap between predictive and generative approaches for speech enhancement. We have shown that they may even outperform their predictive counterparts for non-additive corruption types or when they are evaluated on mismatched conditions. However, diffusion models suffer from a high computational burden, mainly as they require to run a neural network for each reverse diffusion step, whereas predictive approaches only require one pass. As diffusion models are generative approaches they may also produce vocalizing and breathing artifacts in adverse conditions. In comparison, in such difficult scenarios, predictive models typically do not produce such artifacts but tend to distort the target speech instead, thereby degrading the speech quality. In this work, we present a stochastic regeneration approach where an estimate given by a predictive model is provided as a guide for further diffusion. We show that the proposed approach uses the predictive model to remove the vocalizing and breathing artifacts while producing very high quality samples thanks to the diffusion model, even in adverse conditions. We further show that this approach enables to use lighter sampling schemes with fewer diffusion steps without sacrificing quality, thus lifting the computational burden by an order of magnitude. Source code and audio examples are available online (https://uhh.de/inf-sp-storm).

Recently, many causal estimators for Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) and instrumental variable (IV) problems have been published and open sourced, allowing to estimate granular impact of both randomized treatments (such as A/B tests) and of user choices on the outcomes of interest. However, the practical application of such models has ben hampered by the lack of a valid way to score the performance of such models out of sample, in order to select the best one for a given application. We address that gap by proposing novel scoring approaches for both the CATE case and an important subset of instrumental variable problems, namely those where the instrumental variable is customer acces to a product feature, and the treatment is the customer's choice to use that feature. Being able to score model performance out of sample allows us to apply hyperparameter optimization methods to causal model selection and tuning. We implement that in an open source package that relies on DoWhy and EconML libraries for implementation of causal inference models (and also includes a Transformed Outcome model implementation), and on FLAML for hyperparameter optimization and for component models used in the causal models. We demonstrate on synthetic data that optimizing the proposed scores is a reliable method for choosing the model and its hyperparameter values, whose estimates are close to the true impact, in the randomized CATE and IV cases. Further, we provide examles of applying these methods to real customer data from Wise.

Instruction tuning enables pretrained language models to perform new tasks from inference-time natural language descriptions. These approaches rely on vast amounts of human supervision in the form of crowdsourced datasets or user interactions. In this work, we introduce Unnatural Instructions: a large dataset of creative and diverse instructions, collected with virtually no human labor. We collect 64,000 examples by prompting a language model with three seed examples of instructions and eliciting a fourth. This set is then expanded by prompting the model to rephrase each instruction, creating a total of approximately 240,000 examples of instructions, inputs, and outputs. Experiments show that despite containing a fair amount of noise, training on Unnatural Instructions rivals the effectiveness of training on open-source manually-curated datasets, surpassing the performance of models such as T0++ and Tk-Instruct across various benchmarks. These results demonstrate the potential of model-generated data as a cost-effective alternative to crowdsourcing for dataset expansion and diversification.

The number of international benchmarking competitions is steadily increasing in various fields of machine learning (ML) research and practice. So far, however, little is known about the common practice as well as bottlenecks faced by the community in tackling the research questions posed. To shed light on the status quo of algorithm development in the specific field of biomedical imaging analysis, we designed an international survey that was issued to all participants of challenges conducted in conjunction with the IEEE ISBI 2021 and MICCAI 2021 conferences (80 competitions in total). The survey covered participants' expertise and working environments, their chosen strategies, as well as algorithm characteristics. A median of 72% challenge participants took part in the survey. According to our results, knowledge exchange was the primary incentive (70%) for participation, while the reception of prize money played only a minor role (16%). While a median of 80 working hours was spent on method development, a large portion of participants stated that they did not have enough time for method development (32%). 25% perceived the infrastructure to be a bottleneck. Overall, 94% of all solutions were deep learning-based. Of these, 84% were based on standard architectures. 43% of the respondents reported that the data samples (e.g., images) were too large to be processed at once. This was most commonly addressed by patch-based training (69%), downsampling (37%), and solving 3D analysis tasks as a series of 2D tasks. K-fold cross-validation on the training set was performed by only 37% of the participants and only 50% of the participants performed ensembling based on multiple identical models (61%) or heterogeneous models (39%). 48% of the respondents applied postprocessing steps.

Cutting planes are a crucial component of state-of-the-art mixed-integer programming solvers, with the choice of which subset of cuts to add being vital for solver performance. We propose new distance-based measures to qualify the value of a cut by quantifying the extent to which it separates relevant parts of the relaxed feasible set. For this purpose, we use the analytic centers of the relaxation polytope or of its optimal face, as well as alternative optimal solutions of the linear programming relaxation. We assess the impact of the choice of distance measure on root node performance and throughout the whole branch-and-bound tree, comparing our measures against those prevalent in the literature. Finally, by a multi-output regression, we predict the relative performance of each measure, using static features readily available before the separation process. Our results indicate that analytic center-based methods help to significantly reduce the number of branch-and-bound nodes needed to explore the search space and that our multiregression approach can further improve on any individual method.

Single-channel deep speech enhancement approaches often estimate a single multiplicative mask to extract clean speech without a measure of its accuracy. Instead, in this work, we propose to quantify the uncertainty associated with clean speech estimates in neural network-based speech enhancement. Predictive uncertainty is typically categorized into aleatoric uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty. The former accounts for the inherent uncertainty in data and the latter corresponds to the model uncertainty. Aiming for robust clean speech estimation and efficient predictive uncertainty quantification, we propose to integrate statistical complex Gaussian mixture models (CGMMs) into a deep speech enhancement framework. More specifically, we model the dependency between input and output stochastically by means of a conditional probability density and train a neural network to map the noisy input to the full posterior distribution of clean speech, modeled as a mixture of multiple complex Gaussian components. Experimental results on different datasets show that the proposed algorithm effectively captures predictive uncertainty and that combining powerful statistical models and deep learning also delivers a superior speech enhancement performance.